War-torn Burma Votes in Widely Criticised 'Sham' Election.

Polling materials in Myanmar
Myanmar's junta is holding a phased election over the next month.

The nation is holding an election in a electoral process broadly rejected as a sham, with key opposition groups dissolved, numerous figures imprisoned and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing civil war.

A Staggered Vote Amid War

The military government is conducting a staggered election nearly half a decade after it seized power in a takeover, which ignited widespread opposition and escalated into a civil war.

Analysts note the junta, with China's support, is attempting to validate and entrench its power as it seeks a way out of the costly stalemate.

"The environment does not allow for the practice of the freedoms of freedom of expression, association or peaceful protest," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk stated.

Over two hundred people have been charged for interfering with or criticising the election under a recently enacted legislation which imposes harsh penalties, including the death penalty.

Film director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures convicted under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each given a seven-year jail term after criticising a promotional video promoting the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Pressure

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk said in a comment, adding that armed rebel groups have issued their own threats asking people to boycott the polls.

The military has been engaged on multiple battlefields, against both armed resistance groups who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own militias. It lost control of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but clawed back territory this year after sustained aerial bombardment made possible through support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

Voting is set to take place in three phases over the coming weeks in 274 of the country's 330 townships, with the remainder deemed not secure enough. Results are expected around the end of January.

There is not expected to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will hold elections, making it challenging to predict a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while dozens more parties and non-aligned contenders will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's key leaders have been imprisoned under charges widely condemned as politically motivated, while others are in hiding abroad.

Criticism and Rejection

"By splitting the vote into phases, the authorities can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the initial round do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the UK and the European Parliament, have rejected the vote as a sham, while regional bloc Asean has urged negotiations to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has dismissed condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "return [the country] to a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the citizens of this country. It is not intended for the international community," a junta spokesman told a briefing last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are turning their back on "the path to democracy".

Jonathan Pratt
Jonathan Pratt

A seasoned gambling analyst with over 15 years of experience in sports betting and casino gaming, specializing in UK markets.